IUCN Guidelines for Assessing Species’ Vulnerability to Climate Change

Several methods have been developed for climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) of species. There is no single ‘correct’ or established way to carry out CCVA of species and these guidelines aim to assist conservation practitioners to interpret and use the complex and often inconsistent CCVA literature. The guidelines indicate sensible and defensible approaches, in the context of the current state of knowledge and available resources.

The guidelines outline some of the terms commonly used in climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) and describe three dominant CCVA approaches, namely correlative (niche-based), mechanistic, and trait-based approaches. Advice is provided on setting clear, measurable objectives and selecting CCVA approaches and appropriate methods. Guidance on using and interpreting CCVA results includes suggestions on data sources and their use, working with knowledge gaps and uncertainty, approaches for use in challenging contexts, and incorporating indirect climate change impacts such as habitat transformation.

It is hoped that the guidelines will promote standardization of CCVA terminology and provide a useful resource for those wishing to carry out CCVA at species, site, or site-network scales.

The guidelines are structured to provide (i) background information on definitions and metrics associated with CCVA; (ii) a discussion on identifying CCVA objectives; (iii) core guidance on selecting and applying appropriate methods; (iv) sections on interpreting and communicating results; (v) using results in IUCN Red List assessments; (vi) ways to address the many sources of uncertainty in CCVAs. A final section explores future directions for CCVAs and research needs. The guidelines also highlight 10 case studies that provide worked examples of CCVAs covering the range of methods described.

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