Macroeconomic modelling to evaluate and justify adaptation investments

Finance and planning ministries decide budgets on GDP, jobs and avoided costs. Physical climate projections describe hazards; adaptation wins budget share when its case is made in economic terms. Water matters most here: floods, droughts and falling water availability are the main routes by which climate risk reaches farms, power plants, factories and households. The GIZ programme Policy Advice for Climate Resilient Economic Development (CRED) built national economic models for Kazakhstan, Georgia, Mongolia, Nigeria and Vietnam. Each model treats water as an input to every sector, so the knock-on effects of a drought show up in one run. Each adaptation measure is tested for avoided losses, GDP, jobs and emissions under low, medium and high emission pathways. A measure counts as robust when it pays off under all three. Five models were built and handed to national institutions.

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Turning Biogas Residue into Value: A Farmer-Owned Business Model for Bio-PROM in India

In India, the prolonged and excessive use of chemical fertilisers has contributed to soil compaction, soil acidification, loss of humus, declining soil health and environmental damage. At the same time, biogas slurry, a locally available by-product of household biogas plants, often remains underutilised. The Bio-PROM business model developed under the ProSoil project in Sindhudurg, Maharashtra, addresses both challenges by converting residue from biogas plants into phosphate-rich organic manure through a farmer-owned enterprise model. The approach links biogas-user farmers and Farmer Producer Organizations in one system. Farmers produce dry cake from biogas slurry, the Farmer Producer Organizations buy it back, processes it with rock phosphate and liquid organic fertiliser, and sells Bio-PROM to member farmers at reasonable prices, while surplus can be marketed outside the project area. The model improves soil fertility, reduces dependence on chemical phosphate fertilisers and creates an additional income stream for farmers.

Closing the Urban-Rural Nutrient Loop: A Farmer-Led Urban Compost Business Model in Maharashtra, India

India’s agriculture sector faces declining soil health, low soil organic carbon and rising dependence on inorganic fertilisers, while urban areas generate large volumes of biodegradable waste that are often not recycled back into productive use. The GIZ global programme ProSoil India developed an urban-rural nutrient circularity approach in Maharashtra that turns segregated urban organic waste into quality compost and links it to rural agriculture through Farmer Producer Organisations. The approach combines capacity building for Urban Local Bodies, compost quality assurance, Farmer Producer Organisation-led procurement and retail, and enabling policy and digital systems such as the HARIT Certificate, a state quality label for city compost that meets fertiliser quality norms.The model improves soil fertility, water-holding capacity and crop performance, while also creating a viable business opportunity for farmer-owned enterprises and helping close the urban-rural nutrient loop.

Multi-stakeholder partnerships for the adoption of agroecological and climate-smart approaches in the cereal sector

In Tunisia, the cereal sector accounts for approximately 30 percent of the total agricultural land area and half of agricultural employment, but remains vulnerable to soil degradation, erosion, and climate change. The ProSol program (GIZ/BMZ), in collaboration with the General Directorate for Agricultural Land Planning and Conservation (DGACTA) and public partners (INGC, OEP, AVFA, ICARDA, INRAT), has developed a multi-stakeholder approach based on three pillars: the dissemination of agroecological and soil conservation practices through a network of lead and satellite farmers; improved access to equipment, services, and financing mechanisms; and the development of a community-based advisory support system (Innovative Cereal Training, FIC). More than 12,000 hectares have been protected or rehabilitated, resulting in a reduction in soil erosion of up to 60–62% and an increase in cereal yields of 20 to 25%.

From economic evidence to adaptation investment pipeline: macroeconomic-modelling-informed project design

Turning adaptation priorities into fundable projects requires evidence of economic benefits but investors also need clear proposals, with costs, timelines, financing terms and a plan for sharing risks. The GIZ programme Policy Advice for Climate Resilient Economic Development (CRED) helped bridge this gap by translating model results and national adaptation priorities into Project Idea Notes (PINs). This work built on a companion solution, Macroeconomic Modelling to Evaluate and Justify Adaptation Investments, which assesses the GDP gains adaptation can deliver and the losses it can help avoid.

Each PIN is grounded in measured exposure to water-related climate risks including flood frequency, drought probability and irrigation demand making water stress central to the case for investment. Kazakhstan’s two PINs propose multi-purpose water infrastructure, estimated at USD 170–285 million, and building energy efficiency, estimated at USD 285–455 million. Georgia’s PINs focus on windbreak rehabilitation and flood protection.

University-embedded diagnostics and a research-to-practice cycle for agroecological transition

Programmes that promote agroecological transition usually depend on external consultants for the diagnostic that measures whether the transition is happening. When the programme ends, that capacity leaves, and knowledge of what works, crop by crop, stays tacit in producers’ hands. ProResiliente’s research component places the diagnostic in four national public universities through framework agreements. They adapt and apply the Food and Agriculture Organization’s Tool for Agroecology Performance Evaluation (TAPE) across eight value chains, so different crops are measured on one scale. A research-to-practice cycle tests the practices that work for each crop and writes them up as practical guides, and 100 trained local trainers (multipliers) take them to producers. As rainfall and temperatures keep changing, the ability to measure again is what builds resilience, and universities in the drought-exposed Valles keep it close to the territories they serve. Per-chain results and the practice guides are in production.

Multi-actor co-construction of a nationally adopted agroecology strategy

Bolivia’s agri-food sector needed a national policy framework for the shift to agroecology. Producer organisations and the ministry worked with overlapping mandates while drought and other climate-water stress cut production. The strategy’s own diagnosis counts 600,000 people in drought-exposed zones and projects agricultural GDP losses of 12 to 21 percent. Under the Ministry of Rural Development and Lands, a multi-actor steering committee (Comité Impulsor) gave national producer and consumer platforms a seat in steering the National Agroecology Strategy (ENA). A national coordination unit for ecological production (UC-CNAPE) served as secretariat. A separate cooperation committee channelled partner support. Four national, five regional and three technical consultations covered all five macroregions. The strategy governs soil and water functions, watershed protection and reduced agrochemical pollution of water sources. A ministerial resolution approved it on 16 September 2025.

Spontaneous Initiatives for Regional Development Aimed at Sustainable Management of Natural Resources

In Tunisia, nearly 47% of the land is threatened by erosion, in a rural agricultural sector with little organizational structure where farmers have little involvement in collective initiatives. Supported by GIZ’s ProSol program, in alignment with the ACTA 2050 Strategy and the Integrated Land Use Planning and Development Projects (PADIT) of the Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources, and Fisheries, the “Spontaneous Initiatives for Sustainable Land Management” approach mobilizes, selects, and supports rural organizations leading microprojects for sustainable land management. Structured into three modules—(1) mobilization and selection, (2) technical and financial support, and (3) monitoring and local integration—the initiative has funded seven initiatives in the Northwest and Central-West regions, raise awareness among hundreds of farmers, and restore several hundred hectares, laying the groundwork for institutionalization within the General Directorate for Agricultural Land Planning and Conservation (DGACTA).

Farmer-led agroecology and seed systems strengthening agrobiodiversity in Ghana

The Abrono Organic Farmers Association (ABOFA), based in Forikrom in Ghana’s Bono East Region, supports about 6,000 farmers to manage agrobiodiversity across more than 5,000 hectares through agroecological farming. Farmers cultivate small plots of around 1 hectare using diverse mixtures of root crops, cereals, vegetables, fruit trees and livestock in agroforestry systems. ABOFA strengthens these systems through farmer field schools, farmer-to-farmer extension and training on soil testing, composting, rainwater harvesting, nursery practices, beekeeping, grafting and recordkeeping. Farmers mainly save and exchange their own seeds, while ABOFA’s community seed bank conserves 31 crop varieties. The association also supports value addition, aggregation and market access for products such as cashew, mango, cocoa and honey. Together, these approaches strengthen livelihoods, food security, resilience and the sustainable use of local biodiversity.

Strengthening agroforestry enterprises through cooperative governance in Vietnam

Binh Minh Agroforestry Cooperative (BMAC) in Yen Bai Province, Vietnam, shows how strong internal governance can turn a small farmer group into a viable forestry enterprise. Established in 2017 with support from the Forest and Farm Facility and the Vietnam Farmers’ Union, BMAC grew from 7 to 18 member households and now works with more than 2,000 forest-growing households managing about 8,000 hectares, including 6,000 hectares certified by the Forest Stewardship Council. Clear leadership, elected governance bodies, transparent financial management, regular communication, risk management and continuous learning enabled the cooperative to invest in processing, diversify products and build partnerships with companies and government. From 2018 to 2022, BMAC generated about VND (Vietnamese dong) 64 billion in revenue and VND 6 billion in profit, while creating jobs and expanding access to higher-value markets. Remaining challenges include unequal dividend sharing, limited member participation and access to capital.

Mobilizing internal finance within a forest and farm producer organization in Ghana

The Jwa Ngwaane Community Cooperative Credit Union was established by the Kassena Nankana Baobab Cooperative Union (KANBAOCU), a forest and farm producer organisation (FFPO) in Ghana’s Upper East Region. Formed in August 2020 and launched in December 2020, it began with 96 village savings and loans associations representing 2,920 members. The credit union was created to help members save securely, access low-interest loans and invest in farming, shea, baobab and other value chains after many had lost confidence in commercial banking. The member-owned model offers shares, savings accounts, fixed deposits, loans and agribusiness support. It is governed through a general assembly, board, loans, supervisory and education committees, supported by a manager and field officers. By 2022, it had grown to 363 accounts, 6,105 individual members, GH₵283,523 in savings and GH₵271,346 in loans, showing how FFPOs can mobilize internal finance for inclusive rural enterprise.

Mobilizing farmer-led cooperative finance for family farming in Brazil

Cresol Credit Union System was founded in 1995 by 27 family farmers in southwest Paraná, Brazil, to improve access to rural credit and financial services for smallholders excluded from traditional banking. It has grown into a three-tier cooperative financial system with 1 confederation, 4 central credit unions, 72 first-tier credit unions and 734 branches across 18 Brazilian states. Cresol provides financial services to more than 786,000 member families, including over 245,000 people involved in agriculture. Its model combines member savings and investments with funding from Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES), private and development banks and international funds. Cresol provides productive and investment credit, working capital, insurance, savings, digital services and technical assistance. Through its Rural Entrepreneurship programme and rural finance methodology, it links finance with management support, better use of natural resources, technology and sustainable practices supporting family farming and local development.

Supporting farmer-led agroforestry adoption in Atsinanana, Madagascar

The Union of Farmer Organisations of Atsinanana (FITAFA), supported by the Confederation of Malagasy Farmers (FEKRITAMA) and the Forest and Farm Facility, promotes agroforestry uptake in eastern Madagascar. FITAFA represents 350 farming households across Vatomandry, Antanambao Manampotsy and Mahanoro districts, where slash-and-burn farming, forest and soil degradation, delayed rains and drought threaten livelihoods. Farmers establish shade-grown systems combining cinnamon, clove, coffee and lychee with fruit trees, food crops, vines, livestock, beekeeping and fishponds. FEKRITAMA and FITAFA support adoption through training, farmer-to-farmer learning, demonstration sites, community nurseries and market connections. Farmers have reported improved diets, diversified income, soil restoration, climate resilience, rural employment and stronger social ties. Land tenure is a challenge in which Farmers Organizations still struggle, and constraints remain around markets, labour, finance, seedlings and inclusion of women and youth.